Risk-Based Causal Modeling of Airborne Loss of Separation

Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk

An Experimental Approach to a Rapid Propulsion and Aeronautics Concepts Testbed

Modern aircraft design tools have limitations for predicting complex propulsion-airframe interactions. The demand for new tools and methods addressing these limitations is high based on the many recent Distributed Electric Propulsion (DEP) Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) concepts being developed for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) markets. We propose that low cost electronics and additive manufacturing can support the conceptual design of advanced autonomy-enabled concepts, by facilitating rapid prototyping for experimentally driven design cycles. This approach has the potential to reduce complex aircraft concept development costs, minimize unique risks associated with the conceptual design, and shorten development schedule by enabling the determination of many "unknown unknowns" earlier in the design process and providing verification of the results from aircraft design tools. A modular testbed was designed and built to evaluate this rapid design-build-test approach and to support aeronautics and autonomy research targeting UAM applications utilizing a complex, transitioning-VTOL aircraft configuration. The testbed is a modular wind tunnel and flight model. The testbed airframe is approximately 80% printed, with labor required for assembly. This paper describes the design process, fabrication process, ground testing, and initial wind tunnel structural and thermal loading of a proof-of-concept aircraft, the Langley Aerodrome 8 (LA-8)

Design and Performance of a Hybrid-Electric Fuel Cell Flight Demonstration Concept

As electric powertrain and propulsion-airframe integration technologies advance, airborne electric propulsion concepts appear to be on the cusp of disrupting or transforming aviation markets. One of the many challenges to this transformation lies within the onboard energy storage and generation technologies. State-of-the-art battery technology is heavy and lacks support infrastructure; purely combustion-based solutions to electrical power generation suffer from increased inefficiency as compared to a traditional combustion powertrain. This paper explores another alternative: a hybrid-electric, solid oxide fuel cell power system. This power system reforms traditional fuels to feed fuel cells that generate electrical power for the aircraft electric powertrain. A representative power system is designed based on the requirements for NASAs X-57 Mod II electric flight demonstrator platform, and is shown to exceed system feasibility goals of 300 W/kg and 60% efficiency in at least one configuration. The hybrid-electric fuel cell power system is shown to be competitive with the range performance of a combustion-based power architecture and comparable in mission energy cost to a battery-electric power system